• The Accident to SpaceShip Two

    Alister Macintyre noted in the Risks Forum 28.83 that the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) released results of their investigation into the October 31, 2014 crash of SpaceShipTwo near Mojave, California. The NTSB has released a preliminary summary, findings and safety recommendations for the purpose of holding the public hearing on July 28, 2015.…

  • Volvo Has An Accident

    ……. but not the one you thought! Jim Reisert reported in Risks 28.66 ( Volvo horrible self-parking car accident) on a story in fusion.net on 2015-05-26 about a video of an accident with a Volvo car, apparently performing a demo in the Dominican Republic. The fusion.net story is by Kashmir Hill. Hill says “….[the video]…

  • Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities in Commercial Aviation

    The US Government Accounting Office has published a report into the US Federal Aviation Administration’s possible vulnerabilities to cyberattack. One of my respected colleagues, John Knight, was interviewed for it. (While I’m at it, let me recommend highly John’s inexpensive textbook Fundamentals of Dependable Computing for Software Engineers. It has been very well thought through…

  • Germanwings 9525 and a potential conflict of rights

    Work continues on the investigation into the crash of Germanwings Flight 9525. I note happily that news media are reverting to what I regard as more appropriate phraseology. Our local newspaper had on Friday 27th March two-word major headline “Deadly Intention“, without quotation marks, and the BBC and Economist were both reporting as though an…

  • Thoughts After 4U 9525 / GWI18G

    It is astonishing, maybe unique, about the Germanwings Flight 4U 9525 event how quickly it seems to have been explanatorily resolved. Egyptair Flight 990 (1999) took the “usual time” with the NTSB until it was resolved, and at the end certain participants in the investigation were still maintaining that technical problems with elevator/stabiliser had not…

  • Germanwings Flight 4U 9525

    19:15 CEST on Friday 3rd April The BEA have recovered the Flight Data Recorder and read it. They issued a communiqué. Here is my translation of the pertinent paragraph: At a first reading it appears that the pilot in the cockpit used the autopilot to command a descent to an altitude of 100 ft, then,…

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  • Fault, Failure, Reliability Definitions

    OK, the discussion on these basic concepts continues (see the threads “Paper on Software Reliability and the Urn Model”, “Practical Statistical Evaluation of Critical Software”, and “Fault, Failure and Reliability Again (short)” in the System Safety List archive. This is a lengthy-ish note with a simple point: the notions of software failure, software fault, and…

  • Fault, Failure, Reliability Again

    On the System Safety Mailing list we have been discussing software reliability for just over a week. The occasion is that I and others are considering a replacement for the 18-year-old, incomplete, largely unhelpful and arguably misleading guide to the statistical evaluation of software in IEC 61508-7:2010 Annex D. Annex D is only four and…

  • Quantitative Easing and Helicopter Money

    The US Federal Reserve Bank is to end its programme of quantitative easing (QE). QE was introduced by former chairman Bernanke as a response to the financial crash starting in 2008 (or 2007, or whenever). A colleague asked me a few years ago if I understood QE. I didn’t. Now I (am under the illusion…

  • A Continuing Economic Puzzle

    For me at least. I came across a fine article in Vanity Fair magazine from September 2011 in which Michael Lewis endeavors to explain pervasive German attitudes to finance and financial risk . Lewis is well-known for his incisive inquiries into finance. I first read his The Big Short (Allen Lane/Penguin, 2010), about the crash…

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